US Fed September Meeting Announces 25 BP Interest Rate Cut, SHFE Tin Price Slightly Lower at Night Session Opening [SMM Tin Morning News]

SMM Tin Morning Brief on September 18, 2025:

Futures: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2510) opened slightly lower in the night session and continued to fluctuate at lows, closing at 271,000 yuan/mt, down 0.73% from the previous trading day.

Macro: (1) According to Nikkei, Apple (AAPL.O) has discussed trial production of foldable iPhones with suppliers in Taiwan, China, targeting mass production in India by 2026. The report stated that Apple plans to launch a new generation iPhone in 2026, targeting production of approximately 95 million units, an increase of over 10% from this year. Apple believes that launching the long-awaited foldable model could be key to achieving this goal. Sources indicated that Apple aims to leverage the engineering resources and industrial ecosystem of suppliers in Taiwan to establish a small trial production line there for device testing, parameter adjustment, and optimization of the manufacturing process for foldable iPhones. Once the production process is finalized, it will be replicated in India for mass production. Suppliers have identified a potential site in a city in northern Taiwan for setting up the trial production line. (2) At the 2025 World Energy Storage Conference held on September 17, Du Xinfeng, Deputy General Manager of Hangzhou Unitree Robotics Co., Ltd., stated that breakthroughs in AI large models from 2023 to 2024 have driven the robotics industry to shift from an "all-in-one software and hardware algorithm" model to a division-of-labor approach, where hardware, model training, and industry applications are handled by specialized entities. Simply combining hardware and models enables rapid deployment, which has been key to the recent surge in popularity of humanoid robots. Du believes that humanoid robots are a critical form for achieving complex operations in the future. Currently, Unitree Robotics' quadruped robots account for 60% to 70% of global shipments, and its humanoid robots also lead in global shipments. Robots are widely used in entertainment performances and have certain applications in industrial inspection, power grid, ESS, and other fields. Energy, transportation, firefighting, and emergency response are expected to be important deployment scenarios for robots. (3) US Fed September Meeting—① Announced a 25-basis-point interest rate cut, with only Milan dissenting and supporting a 50-basis-point cut. ② Powell stated that risks in the labour market are tilted to the downside, and this rate cut can be understood as a risk management cut; a 50-basis-point cut did not receive broad support; reiterated the temporary impact of tariffs on inflation. ③ The dot plot median implies a cumulative three rate cuts (75 basis points) this year and one cut next year. Milan hopes for a cumulative 150-basis-point cut this year. ④ Powell continued to implicitly express concerns about stagflation.

Fundamentals: (1) Supply-side disruptions: Tin ore supply is tightening in major production areas such as Yunnan, and some smelters maintained shutdowns for maintenance in September (Bullish★). (2) Demand side: PV industry: After the installation rush, orders for PV tin bars in east China declined, and operating rates at some producers dropped; Electronics industry: The electronics end-user sector in south China entered the off-season, coupled with high tin prices, leading to strong wait-and-see sentiment among end-users, with orders only meeting essential needs; Other sectors: Demand remained stable in areas such as tinplate and chemicals, without exceeding expectations.

Spot market: Tin prices dropped slightly but remained at a relatively high level, with most downstream and end-user enterprises maintaining a just-in-time procurement strategy. The vast majority of traders transacted 10-20 mt yesterday, while a few traders transacted more than two truckloads. Overall, spot market transactions showed a slight recovery.

[Data source statement: Except for publicly available information, other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, and are for reference only, not constituting decision-making advice. The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research or decision-making advice. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this to replace independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]